Impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases epidemiology (malaria and dengue) in Ethiopia: strengthening early warning systems
PhD candidate: Muhammed Ahmed
Institution: University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam Institute for Global Health and Development (AIGHD), Netherlands
Supervisors: Tobias Rinke de Wit; Dawit Wolday; Alemu Gonsamo; Mirgissa Kaba
This PhD project investigates the impact of climate change on the epidemiology of malaria and dengue transmission in Ethiopia, with the aim of strengthening climate informed early warning systems. Malaria and dengue are increasingly important climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases, with transmission patterns influenced by temperature, rainfall variability, ecological change, and urbanization. Despite major progress in malaria control, Ethiopia has recently experienced a sharp increase in malaria cases, the expansion into higher-altitude areas, and the emergence of new vector species. Dengue fever is also emerging, with repeated outbreaks and expanding geographic distribution, creating additional diagnostic and surveillance challenges due to symptom overlap with malaria.
The study is embedded in a One Health framework and integrates epidemiological, climatic, genomic, and community-level perception through qualitative research methods. It combines retrospective analysis of national surveillance data and integration of meteorological data from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute and from remote sensing and satellite-derived environmental data, including temperature, rainfall, altitude, and vegetation indices, in collaboration with the School of Earth, Environment & Society, McMaster University. These data will be used to assess the spatio-temporal patterns of malaria and climate-driven risk factors of malaria across Ethiopia.
Spatial and temporal modelling will be applied to identify transmission hotspots and climate-sensitive risk districts. In collaboration with the EpiGen consortium, the study will also explore the impact of climate change on antimicrobial resistance for Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax, and dengue virus to assess potential links between environmental change and pathogen dynamics
The study aims to climate-inform a predictive epidemiological model to strengthen early-warning systems for malaria and dengue fever disease outbreaks in Ethiopia.